ARGENTINE ASSETS STARTED THE WEEK ON A MOSTLY NEGATIVE NOTE, with USD-denominated sovereigns retreating, hit harder at the long end, as country risk rose again on a day of losses for emerging market debt as well. The peso curve held stable, while the official exchange rate rose and the BCRA added modest purchases. Equities fell broadly. On the macro front, INDEC reported the largest trade surplus since May, driven by energy exports.
USD-DENOMINATED SOVEREIGN BONDS FELL 0.7% ON AVERAGE, with losses across both legislations and a sharper adjustment at the long end of the curves. Globales dropped 0.7% and Bonares 0.8%. Shorter-dated bonds slipped just 0.1%, while the GD46 lost 1.9% and the AL41 1.6%. Country risk rose 27 bps to close at 675 bps, on a day when emerging market debt fell 0.5%. Bopreal bonds, meanwhile, declined 0.1%.
PESO CURVES ENDED LOWER IN USD TERMS, with declines across most segments. TAMAR and CER bonds fell 0.5%. Fixed-rate bonds also declined, with the short end down 0.5%, outperforming the long end's 0.7% drop. Dollar-linked bonds showed similar divergence, with the short end down 0.3% and the long end down 0.9%. Dual bonds also fell 0.7%. In the short-term money market, the overnight repo rate fell to 20.4% NAR.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE 0.6% TO $1,523.3, accumulating a 0.4% gain in October. The MEP dollar advanced 0.3% to $1,540.6 and the CCL rose 0.6% to $1,627.9, with the implied spread (canje) at 5.7%. Meanwhile, the BCRA bought USD 18 M on the day, bringing its October total to USD 1,000 M and its year-to-date total to USD 15,580 M. Gross reserves, meanwhile, fell USD 84 M to close at USD 50,152 M.
THE MERVAL FELL 1.7% IN PESOS AND 2.4% IN CCL DOLLAR TERMS. It was a broadly negative session: real estate was the only sector to post gains, while communications, energy and materials led the declines. On the local panel, IRSA (+0.7%) was the only stock to rise, while Transener (-6.8%), Edenor (-6.4%) and BYMA (-5.6%) led the losses. In New York, ADRs fell 1.8% on average. Ternium (+1.9%), Globant (+1.5%) and Mercado Libre (+0.3%) led the gains, while Bioceres (-7.4%), Edenor (-5.1%) and Adecoagro (-3.9%) led the declines.
THE TRADE BALANCE POSTED A SEPTEMBER SURPLUS OF USD 2,976 M, USD 2,039 M above the same month in 2025 and the highest since May, following three months stable around USD 2,100-2,200 M. Exports totaled USD 10,036 M and accelerated their growth to 23.5% y/y (from 12.2% in August). The increase was driven by both prices (16.4%) and volumes (6.1%), led by fuels and energy (+89.1% y/y). Imports reached USD 7,060 M and fell 1.8% y/y: volumes dropped 11.2%, more than offsetting a 10.4% rise in prices. Terms of trade improved 5.4%, and the year-to-date surplus reached USD 21,198 M, nearly double the total for all of 2025.
