INDEC DATA ON JULY INDUSTRY AND CONSTRUCTION TOOK CENTER STAGE, showing sizable declines in both sectors and contrasting with a market that traded with practically no clear direction. Hard-dollar debt closed flat, with Globales pulling only slightly ahead of Bonares and country risk unchanged, in a session where emerging market debt eased slightly. Peso curves again showed a buying bias in inflation-linked paper, while the official exchange rate and financial dollars retreated. The BCRA added a marginal purchase and gross reserves held stable. The Merval advanced for a fourth consecutive session.
USD-DENOMINATED BONDS CLOSED MIXED, with sovereign debt ending flat on average. The divide was again along legislation: Globales rose 0.2% while Bonares slipped 0.3%, in a session where emerging market debt fell 0.1%. Within New York-law paper the move was a steepening, with the long end gaining as much as 0.4% and the short end losing ground. Country risk held steady at 490 bps. Bopreal bonds, measured in MEP dollars, rose 0.1%.
PESO CURVES CLOSED WITH A MODEST GAIN IN USD TERMS, with every segment ending in positive territory. CER-linked bonds led with 0.4%, as the longer end drove the segment higher, while fixed-rate paper and CER-TAMAR duals added 0.3% and dollar-linked notes rose 0.1%, outperforming in dollar terms even as the official exchange rate eased in peso trading.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE FELL 0.1% to close at $1,510.10, practically unchanged for the month. Financial dollars followed suit: the MEP dollar fell 0.5% to $1,522.81 and the CCL retreated 0.3% to $1,586.49, with the spread (canje) at 4.2%. Separately, the BCRA bought USD 20 M during the session, bringing its September total to USD 101 M and USD 14,208 M year-to-date. Meanwhile, gross reserves fell USD 1 M to close at USD 50,732 M.
THE MERVAL ROSE 0.2% IN USD (CCL) TERMS, closing at USD 1,936.6 and extending its advance to a fourth consecutive session (up 0.9% in pesos). Consumer staples led the gains, followed by industrials and energy, while consumer discretionary, construction and real estate lagged. Among local board stocks, Holcim stood out with a gain of about 2.8% in dollar terms, followed by Transportadora de Gas del Sur at 2.2% and Pampa Energía at 1.8%, while Loma Negra fell about 1.5%, Mirgor 1.4% and Banco de Valores 1.0%. New York-listed ADRs rose 0.4% on average, led by Corporación América at 4.6%, Ternium at 4.4% and Edenor at 4.1%, while Bioceres declined 8.2%, Globant 6.5% and Mercado Libre 1.9%.
INDEC RELEASED JULY INDUSTRY AND CONSTRUCTION DATA, BOTH SHOWING SHARP DECLINES. Manufacturing output (IPI) fell 5.0% s.a. m/m, cutting short two months of modest gains and taking the seasonally-adjusted level to its lowest since January 2025, with a 4.9% y/y drop and a year-to-date decline of 2.6% versus 2025. The deterioration was broad-based, with twelve of sixteen divisions in negative territory and the bulk of the drag concentrated in machinery and equipment and the textile complex. On the construction side, the ISAC index fell 4.6% s.a. m/m, chaining two consecutive months of decline after May’s rebound, with a 4.5% y/y drop that still leaves the year-to-date figure 1.7% higher. Input data confirmed the picture, with double-digit year-on-year declines in asphalt, gypsum and hollow bricks, while floor space authorized by building permits grew 31.6% y/y in June, a leading indicator that has yet to filter through to construction activity.
