THE SESSION’S MAIN STORY WAS MOODY’S UPGRADE, which raised the sovereign rating to B3 and left the three major agencies aligned for the first time in years. Even against this constructive backdrop, dollar sovereigns closed without major changes and country risk even edged up slightly to 420 bps, in a reaction likely to be reflected only tomorrow. The peso curve showed a buying bias led by CER-linked bonds, while the official rate deepened its monthly decline and the BCRA added another session of purchases. The Merval, meanwhile, stood out with broad-based gains. Toward the close, the Treasury also completed a swap that cleared the dollar-linked maturity due at the end of July.
MOODY’S RAISED ARGENTINA’S SOVEREIGN RATING TO B3 FROM CAA1, in its first move on Argentine credit since July of last year. With this decision, the agency joined the upgrades Fitch had carried out in early May and S&P in June, both from CCC+ to B-, leaving the three major agencies aligned at an equivalent level for the first time in years. The rationale was common to all three: the sustained fiscal surplus, reserve accumulation, and Argentina’s consolidation as a net energy exporter, factors that strengthen the liquidity profile and improve repayment prospects ahead of the 2026-2027 maturity wall.
PESO CURVES SHOWED A SLIGHTLY BULLISH BIAS, with CER-linked bonds in the lead after rising 0.4% to top the session. Fixed-rate paper lagged, with Lecap ending little changed, while at the TAMAR end there were pockets of gains, such as the TMG27, which climbed 1.4%. At the margin, Dollar-Linked bonds were flat and dual bonds closed little changed.
DOLLAR BONDS CLOSED A SESSION WITHOUT MAJOR CHANGES, Local-law Bonares rose 0.1%, outperforming Globales, which ended flat, on a day when emerging market debt also showed little movement. Within the curve, the GD29 weighed on the segment with a 1.0% decline, while the local-law AL30 and AL35 managed to close in positive territory. Country risk rose to 420 bps.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE FELL 0.2%, closing at $1,477.7, for a 0.4% decline month-to-date. Among financial rates, the MEP dollar retreated 0.4% to $1,508.0 and the CCL slipped 0.1% to close at $1,570.5, with the implied spread (canje) at 4.1%. Separately, the BCRA bought USD 45 M during the session, bringing purchases to USD 1,522 M in July and USD 12,696 M year-to-date. Meanwhile, gross reserves rose USD 112 M to close at USD 48,919 M.
THE MERVAL ROSE 1.6% IN PESOS AND 1.7% IN CCL DOLLAR TERMS, closing at USD 2,086, in a session with broad-based gains. Utilities, energy and communications led sector gains; consumer and industrials were the only sectors in the red. Among stocks, Edenor (+5.6%), Pampa (+4.2%) and Holcim (+4.1%) led the gains in USD terms; Mirgor (-1.3%), Transener (-0.2%) and Banco de Valores (-0.1%) closed lower. Among New York-listed shares, Edenor (+5.7%), Cresud (+4.3%) and Pampa (+3.7%) led the gains; MercadoLibre (-0.7%), Globant (-0.4%) and Bioceres (-0.2%) were the only decliners.
THE TREASURY CARRIED OUT A CONVERSION OPERATION WITH IN-KIND SUBSCRIPTION, on the dollar-linked bond D31L6, due July 31, offering in exchange the D31G6 maturing August 31, 2026, and the TZVD8 due December 15, 2028. USD 1,895 M was awarded out of USD 2,087 M in bids, representing 45.2% acceptance of the outstanding total. The bulk of the conversion flowed into the short tranche, with USD 1,736 M allocated to the D31G6, while the TZVD8 captured the remaining USD 159 M. As a result, the operation eased the upcoming payment without significantly extending duration, since most holders opted to reposition just one month ahead rather than stretch the commitment out to 2028.
