THE SESSION HAD A CONSTRUCTIVE, SELECTIVE TONE, with peso debt trading higher led by duals, alongside a fixed-rate curve that steepened in the long end, while dollar sovereigns posted minimal, broadly scattered gains across segments. The financial dollar eased again, compressing the spread, with the official rate just above the prior close. The central bank kept up marginal purchases and equities closed with momentum, in a session that also brought an improvement in consumer confidence driven by expectations.
DOLLAR BONDS CLOSED WITH MILD GAINS, in line with emerging-market debt, which also ended higher. Globales and Bonares advanced 0.1% on average, with clearly different behavior by segment: the short end led, with GD29 and AO29 adding 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, while the long end lagged and AL41 fell 0.9%. Country risk, however, rose 5 bps to 515 bps. Bopreal notes ended with no relevant changes, with the 2027 strips trading near par.
PESO CURVES CLOSED BROADLY HIGHER IN USD TERMS, Duals led with an average gain of 0.6%, driven by CER/TAMAR paper, followed by TAMAR-linked notes at 0.4%. Fixed-rate bonds added 0.3% with pronounced steepening, as the long end rose 0.6% against 0.3% for the short end, and TY30P advanced 1.0%. CER-linked bonds followed with 0.3%, while dollar-linked notes brought up the rear at 0.3%, dragged down by a long end that was nearly unchanged. In the overnight market, one-day caución closed at 20.3% NAR after easing 6 bps, repo stood at 20.3% after rising 2.5 bps, and private banks' TAMAR held at 23.6%.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE 0.1% TO $1,510.00, with the month-to-date devaluation practically nil. The MEP dollar fell 0.2% to $1,533.73 and the CCL dollar eased 0.1% to $1,590.90, leaving the gap with the official rate at 5.4% and the MEP-CCL spread at 3.7%. Meanwhile, the central bank bought USD 9 M on the day, bringing accumulated purchases to USD 167 M in September and USD 14,274 M year-to-date. Gross reserves, on the other hand, fell USD 184 M to close at USD 49,816 M.
THE MERVAL ROSE 0.6% IN CCL-DOLLAR TERMS (1.1% IN PESOS), closing at USD 1,917. The session was led by Real Estate, up 5.7% once adjusted, followed by Consumer Staples at 3.2% and Communications at 2.0%, while Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Energy closed with declines of less than 0.6%. Among local shares, Cresud stood out with 6.4%, Transportadora Gas del Norte with 5.7% and Central Puerto with 5.3%, while Mirgor, Pampa Energía and YPF slipped around 0.4%. ADRs rose 0.8% on average, led by Cresud with 6.7%, followed by Central Puerto with 6.1% and IRSA with 4.0%, while Bioceres fell 4.7%, Globant 1.7% and Vista Energy 1.3%.
THE UTDT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ROSE 2.4% M/M IN SEPTEMBER TO 41.18 POINTS, standing 3.4% above a year ago, though still 13.1% below its January 2025 peak. The improvement was driven by Personal Situation, which jumped 11.3%, while Durable Goods and Real Estate fell 3.4% and Macroeconomic Situation slipped 0.8%. By horizon, Future Expectations advanced 3.8% against just 0.3% for Present Conditions, a sign that the recovery is more about what's ahead than the present.
