EQUITIES AND BONDS TRADED FIRM, in a positive session on Monday. Sovereign dollar bonds rose slightly, with country risk compressing 3 bps to 415 bps. Financial dollars fell while the official rate held steady, in a session of lower BCRA purchases. In peso bonds, dollar-linked and Duals closed slightly higher, while CER bonds were unchanged. Equities closed higher, led by construction and energy. On the macro front, INDEC reported another trade surplus, underpinned by firm exports, while wages barely kept pace with May inflation.
PESO CURVES HAD AN UNEVEN SESSION, with CER bonds leading the gains at 0.5%, followed by Duals, also around 0.5%, while fixed-rate bonds rose 0.3% and dollar-linked bonds lagged, flat on the day. Within the fixed-rate segment moves were narrow, with short Lecaps outperforming longer ones.
DOLLAR BONDS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER, diverging from emerging-market debt, which traded lower on the day. Hard-dollar debt rose 0.1% on average, with Bonares up 0.2% and Globales up 0.1%, though performance was mixed across tranches: the short end led, headed by the GD29, while the long end lagged and some bonds ended in negative territory. Country risk fell 3 bps to 415 bps. Bopreales tracked the tone with a 0.1% gain.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE CLOSED NEARLY UNCHANGED at $1,480.2, accumulating a 0.2% decline so far this month. In the financial segment, the MEP fell 0.6% to $1,513.3 and the CCL fell 0.3% to $1,572.0, with the FX spread at 3.9%. Separately, the BCRA bought USD 32 M on the day, accumulating USD 1,477 M in July and USD 12,651 M so far this year. Gross reserves rose USD 23 M, closing at USD 48,807 M.
THE MERVAL ROSE 1.1% IN DOLLAR TERMS, closing at USD 2,051, in a positive session. Construction, energy and utilities led the sector gains. Among local stocks, Mirgor (+3.0%), Pampa (+2.6%) and Loma Negra (+2.2%) led the gains; Sociedad Comercial del Plata (-1.6%) and BYMA (-0.8%) were the only names in the red. Among ADRs, AdecoAgro (+5.5%), Pampa (+2.5%) and Edenor (+2.3%) led the gains; Corporacion America (-2.3%), Bioceres (-2.0%) and Supervielle (-0.8%) closed lower.
THE TRADE BALANCE POSTED A JUNE SURPLUS OF USD 2,194 M, USD 1,314 M above the same month in 2025. Exports totaled USD 9,055 M, up 24.5% y/y, driven by prices (+16.5%) and volumes (+6.8%), led by agro-manufactures (USD 3,344 M, 36.9% of the total). Imports reached USD 6,861 M, up 7.3% y/y, driven entirely by prices (+11.6%) as volumes fell 3.8%. The terms of trade improved 4.4%.
THE OVERALL WAGE INDEX ROSE 2.2% M/M IN MAY, decelerating from April’s 3.7% and just above the 2.1% CPI reading, leaving real wages essentially flat after having outpaced inflation the prior month. Registered private-sector wages rose 2.0% m/m and public-sector wages 1.5% m/m, both below the month’s inflation. In year-on-year terms, the overall index rose 35.9%, somewhat below April’s 36.9% and above the 33.2% CPI reading, though the differential is explained by the unregistered sector (+66.3% y/y); registered segments remain behind, with registered private-sector wages at 29.3% y/y and public-sector wages at 27.4% y/y, both below inflation.
