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The Treasury Keeps Maturities Short as FX Pressures Build

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THE LOCAL MARKET TRADED WITHOUT CLEAR DIRECTION, with attention focused on the terms of Thursday's Treasury auction, announced during the session. Dollar-denominated sovereigns slipped at the margin and lagged emerging market debt, which closed higher, while country risk rose slightly. The peso curve ended mixed, with fixed-rate paper weighed down in the long end and inflation-linked bonds holding steady. The official exchange rate rose again while the financial dollars moved in mixed fashion, and equities closed lower both on the local panel and in New York.

THE SECRETARÍA DE FINANZAS RELEASED THE TERMS OF THURSDAY'S AUCTION, in which the Treasury faces maturities of about $13.9 trillion, including USD 2,595 M of the dollar-linked D31G6, which fixes today. The menu on offer is markedly short-dated: it reopens the November 2026 Lecap (S30N6), adds a new January 2027 Lecap, reopens the January 2027 Lecer (X29E7) and the October 2026 Lelink (D30O6). The exception is the reopening of the May 2027 Boncap (T31Y7), a maturity that had not appeared in the window for some time. As of August 24, the Treasury's peso stock stood at $1.27 trillion, still below average. The choice of short-dated instruments points to absorbing pesos in a context of a strained exchange rate, without validating rates as high in the long end of the curve, which has been fairly heavy. The Treasury may release some pesos into the market to normalize liquidity, though not enough to keep pressuring the exchange rate.

USD-DENOMINATED BONDS CLOSED WITH AN AVERAGE DECLINE OF 0.1%, with Bonares retreating 0.1% and Globals practically unchanged. Losses were concentrated in the long end of both legislations, with declines of up to 0.8%, while the short end held up with slight gains. The performance lagged emerging market debt, which closed higher by around half a point. Country risk closed at 512 bps, three points above the previous session. Bopreal, measured in MEP dollars, advanced 0.3%.

PESO CURVES ENDED LOWER IN USD TERMS, in a mixed session with a selling bias in rate instruments. CER bonds, the only gainer in peso terms, still slipped 0.2% in USD terms, while dollar-linked bonds ended down 0.3%, and both fixed-rate paper and CER-to-TAMAR duals declined 0.4%. The short end of the fixed-rate curve fell 0.2% in USD terms, against declines of up to 0.8% in the long end. Among inflation-linked bonds the pattern was similar, with the medium segment up 0.3% in USD terms while the longest maturities remained in negative territory, deeper in USD terms.

THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE 0.3% and closed at $1,511.53, accumulating a 1.6% gain so far this month. The financial dollars moved in mixed fashion: the MEP dollar slipped 0.1% to $1,539.93 and the CCL rose 0.3% to close at $1,600.94, with the implied spread (canje) at 4.0%. Separately, the BCRA bought USD 9 M during the session, accumulating USD 487 M in August and USD 13,824 M so far this year. Meanwhile, gross reserves rose USD 136 M and closed at USD 50,912 M.

THE MERVAL FELL 0.6% IN CCL DOLLAR TERMS, closing at USD 1,865. Leadership was industrial, followed by the financial sector and materials, while energy, communications and staples lagged. Within the local panel, the biggest gainers in USD terms were Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos at 1.4%, Mirgor at 0.9% and Transener at 0.8%, while YPF fell 2.6%, Pampa Energía 2.2% and Transportadora de Gas del Sur 1.7%. New York-listed shares fell 0.6% on average, led by Corporación América with a 3.3% gain, followed by MercadoLibre with 2.1% and Bioceres with 1.4%, while Vista Energy was the biggest decliner at 4.3%, followed by Adecoagro at 3.2% and YPF at 2.6%.

El presente informe es publicado por Cohen S.A. y ha sido preparado por el Departamento de Research de Cohen S.A. El objetivo del presente informe es brindar a su destinatario información general, y no constituye, de ningún modo, oferta, invitación o recomendación de inversión de Cohen Sociedad de Bolsa S. A para la compra o venta de los títulos valores y/o de los instrumentos financieros mencionados en él. El presente informe no debe ser considerado un prospecto de emisión ni una oferta pública. Aunque la información contenida en el presente informe ha sido obtenida de fuentes que Cohen Sociedad de Bolsa S. A considera confiables, tal información puede ser incompleta o parcial y Cohen Sociedad de Bolsa S. A no ha verificado en forma independiente la información contenida en este informe, ni garantiza la exactitud de la información, o que no se hayan producido cambios adversos en la situación relativa a los emisores descripta en este informe. Cohen Sociedad de Bolsa S. A no asume responsabilidad alguna, explícita o implícita, en cuanto a la veracidad o suficiencia de la misma para efectuar la toma de decisión de su inversión. Todas las opiniones o estimaciones vertidas están sujetas a las variaciones intrínsecas y extrínsecas de los mercados.

This report is published by Cohen S.A and has been drafted by Cohen S.A. Strategy Department. This report is intended to provide the reader with general information, and under no circumstances shall it be understood as an offer, invitation or recommendation to invest in Cohen S.A for the purchase or sale of negotiable securities and/or the financial instruments herein mentioned. This report shall not be considered as a prospectus of issuance or a public offer. Even when the information herein included has been obtained from sources Cohen S.A deems as reliable, such information may be incomplete or partial; and Cohen S.A has not independently verified the information herein included and does not guarantee that it is accurate or that the relative situation of the issuers herein described has not suffered negative changes. Cohen S.A accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever, neither expressed nor implied, in relation with the veracity or sufficiency of this information for making investment decisions. All the opinions and estimates herein expressed are subject to the intrinsic and extrinsic variations of the markets. Cohen S.A. is a Comprehensive Trading, Clearing and Settlement Agent duly registered with the Argentine Stock Exchange under number 21.

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El presente informe es publicado por Cohen S.A. y ha sido preparado por el Departamento de Research de Cohen S.A. El objetivo del presente informe es brindar a su destinatario información general, y no constituye, de ningún modo, oferta, invitación o recomendación de inversión de Cohen Sociedad de Bolsa S. A para la compra o venta de los títulos valores y/o de los instrumentos financieros mencionados en él. El presente informe no debe ser considerado un prospecto de emisión ni una oferta pública. Aunque la información contenida en el presente informe ha sido obtenida de fuentes que Cohen Sociedad de Bolsa S. A considera confiables, tal información puede ser incompleta o parcial y Cohen Sociedad de Bolsa S. A no ha verificado en forma independiente la información contenida en este informe, ni garantiza la exactitud de la información, o que no se hayan producido cambios adversos en la situación relativa a los emisores descripta en este informe. Cohen Sociedad de Bolsa S. A no asume responsabilidad alguna, explícita o implícita, en cuanto a la veracidad o suficiencia de la misma para efectuar la toma de decisión de su inversión. Todas las opiniones o estimaciones vertidas están sujetas a las variaciones intrínsecas y extrínsecas de los mercados.

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