ATTENTION FOCUSED ON TOMORROW'S TREASURY AUCTION, for which the Treasury announced terms against maturities of nearly $8.5 trillion. Ahead of the auction, peso curves traded cautiously without clear direction, with dollar-linked notes in the lead. Dollar sovereigns eased and country risk extended its climb toward the 450 bps area, in contrast with a rising emerging-market debt complex. On the FX front, the official rate edged up while financial dollars slipped, and the central bank added no reserves for the first time in several sessions.
THE TREASURY SETTLES TOMORROW'S AUCTION, facing maturities of about $8.5 trillion, including nearly USD 2,250 M in dollar-linked debt. The menu combines a new LECAP due 10/16/26 (S16O6), a CER/TAMAR instrument due 12/15/28 (TXMD8), two dollar-linked notes due 9/30/26 (D30S6) and 1/15/27 (D15E7, new), along with a reopening of the Bonar AO29 (10/31/29). The novelty is a new TAMAR dollar-linked dual bond due 1/28/28 (TMVE8) that will pay the greater accrual between the floating rate and the official exchange-rate variation.
PESO CURVES OUTPERFORMED IN USD TERMS, trading cautiously ahead of the auction. Dollar-linked notes led with an average gain of 0.2% in pesos — closer to 0.8% once translated to USD — followed by CER-linked paper, which turned more clearly positive after the adjustment. Fixed-rate paper, flat in pesos with the Lecap index unchanged, and duals, also neutral in pesos, both came in around 0.6% higher in USD terms, though the long end of the duals curve was somewhat softer. Overnight rates held steady around 20% NAR.
DOLLAR BONDS TRADED LOWER, with the hard-dollar index easing 0.2% on average. The pullback was somewhat sharper in Bonares (0.3%) than in Globals (0.2%), with some steepening in the curve: the short end held slightly higher while the long end led the losses, with AL35 and GD46 shedding around 0.3/0.4%. Country risk rose for a second consecutive session, climbing toward the 450 bps area. Bopreal notes closed unchanged, with a slight downward bias.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE 0.1% TO $1,499.8, bringing its month-to-date gain to 1.1%. The MEP dollar closed unchanged at $1,530.1 and the CCL dollar fell 0.6% to $1,591.1, with the MEP-CCL spread at 4.0%. The central bank bought no reserves on the day, the first time since January 2nd, leaving accumulated purchases at USD 1,964 M in July and USD 13,138 M year-to-date. Meanwhile, gross reserves fell USD 234 M to close at USD 48,931 M.
THE MERVAL FELL 1.5% IN CCL-DOLLAR TERMS, (also 1.5% in pesos), closing at USD 2,040. The session had a negative tone, with most sectors lower, led by Communications (-1.6%), Energy (-1.5%) and Construction (-1.0%) once adjusted to USD. Among local shares, Mirgor (+7.1%), IRSA (+2.6%) and Aluar (+0.9%) stood out on the upside, while Edenor (-2.7%), TGN (-2.1%) and TGS (-2.0%) led the declines, adjusted for the CCL move. Among New York-listed ADRs, which fell 1.0% on average, Globant (+7.6%), Ternium (+3.3%) and Mercado Libre (+2.4%) posted strong gains, against declines in Vista (-3.5%), TGS (-3.1%) and Telecom (-2.7%).
