LOCAL MARKETS CLOSED ON A FIRM NOTE, with sovereign dollar bonds edging higher and equities advancing, while peso curves lagged. The official exchange rate rose and financial dollars were mixed, in a session of slower BCRA purchases despite steady agricultural settlements. On the macro front, April’s EMAE activity index fell in seasonally adjusted terms but held its year-on-year increase.
OVERNIGHT RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE, in the session following the auction that injected $3 trillion into the system: the one-day repo (caucion) closed at 24.5% NAR, touching 26% NAR intraday, while the BCRA repo stood at 21.6% NAR. Peso curves ended lower, with dollar-linked bonds holding up best at -0.4%, followed by Lecaps (-0.5%) and CER bonds (-0.6%).
DOLLAR DEBT STARTED THE WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE, rising 0.3% and outperforming emerging market debt. Globales led with a 0.6% gain, highlighted by the GD30 (+1.7%), while Bonares slipped 0.1%, dragged by the AL35 (-0.4%). With this performance, country risk eased again to 429 bps. Separately, Bopreales fell 0.3%.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE, rising 0.4% to close at $1,480.66. Financial dollars were mixed: the MEP fell 0.8% and the CCL rose 0.9%, closing at $1,505.6 and $1,556.6 respectively, while the FX spread rose again to 3.6%. The BCRA further slowed its pace of purchases, acquiring just USD 25 M even as the agricultural sector settled more than USD 200 M per day, bringing the June total to USD 1,371 M and the year-to-date figure to USD 11,127 M. Gross reserves fell by USD 415 M, closing at USD 46,666 M.
THE MERVAL ROSE 1.1% IN DOLLAR TERMS, closing at USD 2,046. Real estate, consumer and financials led the gains, while materials and communications closed lower. Among local stocks, Edenor (+5.2%), Holcim (+3.4%) and BBVA (+3.2%) led the advances; Ternium (-1.3%), Aluar (-1.2%) and Telecom (-0.7%) lagged. Among ADRs, Edenor (+5.2%), AdecoAgro (+2.9%) and BBVA (+2.5%) led the gains; Ternium (-2.7%), IRSA (-1.2%) and Vista Energy (-0.9%) closed lower.
APRIL’S EMAE ACTIVITY INDEX FELL 1.5% SEASONALLY ADJUSTED from March, reversing part of the prior month’s 3.1% s.a. gain. In year-on-year terms, the index rose 1.6%, a result conditioned by a demanding base: in April 2025 activity had grown 7.9% y/y, versus 5.8% y/y in March. The impulse again concentrated in the primary sector: agriculture (+10.9% y/y) and mining (+17.1% y/y) jointly contributed 1.8 pp to year-on-year growth. At the other extreme, manufacturing (-2.9% y/y) and commerce (-3.2% y/y) subtracted 0.8 pp, extending a dynamic seen throughout 2026. Year-to-date, activity is up 2.1% y/y.
