DOLLAR BONDS OPENED THE WEEK with an average gain of 0.2%, though performance was mixed across legislations: Globals rose 0.4% while Bonares slipped 0.3%. The improvement was concentrated in the long end of New York-law bonds, with gains of up to 1.6%, while among local-law bonds declines were seen in the short and medium segments. The performance was in line with an up day for emerging market debt. Country risk closed at 509 bps, seven points below Friday. Bopreal bonds, measured in MEP dollars, advanced 0.2%.
PESO CURVES ENDED LOWER IN USD TERMS, as the CCL rally more than offset gains priced in pesos. Fixed-rate bonds, TAMAR-linked notes and CER-to-TAMAR duals each fell 0.5% in USD terms. The decline was more pronounced in the front end of the fixed-rate curve, down around 1.0%, while the long end was little changed, up around 0.3% in USD terms. Dollar-linked notes fell 1.4% in USD terms, and CER bonds lagged with a 1.6% drop, entirely explained by the longer-dated adjustables, as the short and medium segment of the curve ended down between 0.2% and 1.1% in USD terms. Repo rates (caución) eased from Friday, closing at 23.3% NAR, with liquidity somewhat more normalized.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE rose 0.6% to close at $1,506.90, accumulating a 1.2% gain so far this month. Financial dollars moved more sharply: the MEP dollar advanced 1.5% to $1,542.03 and the CCL dollar rose 1.4% to end at $1,596.55, with the MEP-CCL spread at 3.5%. Separately, the BCRA bought USD 11 M on the day, accumulating USD 478 M in August and USD 13,815 M so far this year. Meanwhile, gross reserves rose USD 121 M to close at USD 50,776 M.
THE MERVAL ROSE 2.3% IN USD TERMS (up 2.8% in pesos), closing at USD 1,876 and standing out as the session's top performer. Leadership was clearly financial, followed by construction and non-essential consumer names, while energy, staples and materials lagged. On the local panel, the biggest gainers in USD terms were Banco Supervielle, up 6.4%, Banco Macro, up 3.5%, and BBVA Argentina, up 3.3%, while Ternium fell 2.6% and Aluar and YPF closed little changed, down slightly in USD terms. New York-listed shares rose 2.1% on average, led by Grupo Supervielle with 8.2%, followed by Edenor with 5.4% and Banco Macro with 5.2%, while Bioceres posted the biggest decline, down 6.6%.
ON THE MACRO DATA FRONT, the Torcuato Di Tella University released its August Government Confidence Index, which reached 2.06 points, equivalent to 41.2% approval. The index rose 6.4% m/m after July's 6.5% decline, though it remains 2.8% below the year-ago level and 16.5% below the 2025 close. The level remains relatively high by historical standards: in month 32 of the administration it surpasses Macri, both Cristina Kirchner administrations and Alberto Fernández, trailing only Néstor Kirchner, although the term average has fallen to 2.36 points, its lowest reading, versus 2.49 for Macri and 1.88 for Fernández over the same span. The improvement was broad-based, with four of five components higher, led by efficiency and concern for the general interest, and geographically concentrated in the interior of the country, which rose 7.7% to 2.25 points and remains above CABA, which was practically unchanged, and GBA, where the index remains the lowest.
