DOLLAR-DENOMINATED SOVEREIGNS WERE FLAT ONCE AGAIN. Globals declined evenly across the curve — GD29 and GD30 fell 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively — while Bonars posted a mixed performance: AL30 lost 0.1% and AL41 gained 0.2%. Country risk closed at 498 bps. Bopreales were also unchanged.
ARS-DENOMINATED DEBT CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF TODAY'S TREASURY AUCTION. Lecaps rose 0.7% on average, with mid- and long-dated maturities leading — S30O6, T30J7, and T31Y7 gained more than 0.9% — while the shortest maturities were nearly flat. CER bonds also closed higher, with the index up 0.6% and steeper gains at the short end — X30S6 rose 1.6% — while longer maturities moved only modestly. Dual bonds gained 0.6%, while dollar-linked bonds edged down 0.1% (unadjusted).
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE EDGED UP 0.1%, closing at ARS 1,446.2, remaining 22.5% below the upper band ceiling. Financial exchange rates declined: the MEP and the CCL both fell 0.4%, closing at ARS 1,460.5 and ARS 1,513.9, respectively. The spread between them held at 3.7%, and the gap with the CCL compressed to 4.7%. The BCRA purchased USD 121M, bringing the monthly total to USD 629M at an average pace of USD 90M per day. Gross reserves rose USD 34M to USD 47,832M.
THE MERVAL GAINED 0.8% IN PESOS AND 1.3% IN DOLLAR TERMS, closing at USD 2,073. The rally was led by construction, materials, and banks, while energy underperformed. Among the broader panel, Telecom (6.7%), Loma Negra (5.6%), and Banco Macro (4.2%) topped the gainers, while Ternium (-2.0%), Mirgor (-1.6%), and Transener (-0.7%) posted the largest declines. ADRs rose 1.7% on average, with Loma Negra (5.8%), Telecom Argentina (5.5%), and Grupo Supervielle (5.4%) leading the upside, and Vista Energy (-3.4%), Globant (-2.9%), and AdecoAgro (-1.2%) heading the losses.
MANUFACTURING OUTPUT FELL 2.1% M/M AND 2.8% Y/Y, accumulating a 2.4% decline year-to-date and sitting 5% below November 2023 levels. On an annual basis, the steepest drops were in textiles (-22%), machinery (-20%), and metal industries (-11%), while chemicals (+17%) and petroleum (+6%) expanded. Construction fell 4.0% m/m and 2.8% y/y, though it still holds a 2.1% gain year-to-date.
