THE MERVAL WAS THE SESSION’S MAIN STORY WITH A SHARP DECLINE, dragged down by a more risk-averse global mood amid escalating tension between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Dollar bonds, by contrast, advanced led by the Globales, even as country risk extended its rise to 466 bps. The peso curve traded without major changes ahead of tomorrow’s auction, the first of the month, while the official rate and financial dollars lost ground in a session of moderate BCRA purchases.
TODAY THE TREASURY WILL HOLD AN AUCTION FACING MATURITIES OF JUST $4.5 TRILLION, The menu combines a new LECAP/BONCAP due 11/30/26 (S30N6), a CER instrument due 1/29/27 (X29E7), two Dollar-Linked bonds due 9/30/26 (D30S6) and 10/30/26 (new), and a hard-dollar reopening of the AO29 (10/31/29). With limited maturities and somewhat tighter liquidity, following the decline in the peso stock the BCRA absorbs via repo to $1.08 trillion versus a July average of $2.5 trillion, the Treasury should secure a rollover above 100% without major complications. Even so, the offer continues to target hedging instruments to capture that demand, with fairly short terms within each segment.
DOLLAR BONDS ADVANCED DESPITE THE WORSENING EXTERNAL BACKDROP, with oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields rising on U.S.-Iran tensions. The hard-dollar index added 0.2% on average, with Globales (+0.3%) outperforming Bonares (+0.1%). Within the Globales, the GD41 (+0.7%) stood out, in contrast to the GD46’s decline (-0.6%), the exception of the session. Country risk rose to 466 bps, its sixth consecutive increase and the highest level in two months.
THE PESO CURVE TRADED WITHOUT MAJOR CHANGES AHEAD OF THE AUCTION, Fixed-rate paper, CER and Dollar-Linked bonds closed practically flat, while dual bonds — down 0.1% in pesos — rose 0.3% in USD terms.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE FELL 0.4%, to $1,492.2, though it is up 0.3% for the month so far. In the financial segment, the MEP dollar closed practically unchanged at $1,525.9 and the CCL fell 0.4% to $1,579.0, with the implied spread (canje) at 3.5%. The BCRA bought USD 57 M during the session, bringing purchases to USD 181 M in August and USD 13,518 M year-to-date. Meanwhile, gross reserves fell USD 6 M to close at USD 49,561 M.
THE MERVAL FELL 3.2% IN PESOS AND 3.1% IN CCL DOLLAR TERMS, to USD 1,908.3, dragged down by escalating U.S.-Iran tension, which boosted oil prices and weighed on risk assets broadly. All local sectors closed in negative territory: financials (-3.6%), energy (-3.1%) and construction (-3.0%) led the declines in USD terms, while industrials and materials held up somewhat better, down roughly 0.3% in USD terms. Within the local panel, Ternium (+1.9%) was the only stock in positive territory in USD terms, against sharp declines in Telecom Argentina (-5.3%), Banco Macro (-4.5%) and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-4.4%). In New York, ADRs fell 2.3% on average, though Mercado Libre stood out with a 6.3% jump, in contrast to declines in Telecom Argentina (-5.6%) and BBVA (-4.7%).
