THE SESSION LEFT MIXED SIGNALS, as settlement of the latest Treasury auction withdrew roughly ARS 0.3 trillion from the system, and far from straining liquidity, the peso curve closed with buying interest across all segments, with overnight rates steady. Dollar sovereigns, however, tracked the external mood, with Wall Street in the red on AI-related concerns and a Fed seen as more restrictive, and fell somewhat more than their emerging-market peers. The financial exchange rate eased and the Merval closed lower.
DOLLAR BONDS FELL 0.4% ON AVERAGE, with Globales down 0.5% and Bonares down 0.3%, and the pressure concentrated in the long end, where the GD38 lost 1.3% and the AL35 1.1%. The move outpaced emerging-market debt, which eased 0.1% on the day. Country risk rose 5 bps to close at 490 bps. Bopreal bonds, measured in dollars, ended practically unchanged with a 0.1% decline.
PESO CURVES ROSE IN USD TERMS, despite the Treasury absorption. TAMAR-linked bonds led with a 1.0% gain, followed by CER at 0.8% and duals at 0.8%, within which CER-to-TAMAR bonds advanced 0.9%. Further back were fixed-rate bonds, up 0.6%, and dollar-linked bonds, up 0.3% as the short end lagged. Along the CER curve the move was even across tenors, with no meaningful change in slope. Overnight rates held at levels similar to the previous session, with the one-day caución rate at 21.0% NAR and the repo rate at 20.8%, with no signs of stress from the settlement.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE CLOSED PRACTICALLY UNCHANGED, at ARS 1,510.32, up 0.1% month-to-date. The MEP dollar fell 0.3% to ARS 1,534.00 and the CCL dollar declined 0.4% to ARS 1,591.14, with the spread (canje) at 3.7%. Separately, the BCRA bought USD 12 M on the day, bringing its September total to USD 135 M and its year-to-date total to USD 14,242 M. Meanwhile, gross reserves fell USD 58 M to close at USD 50,411 M.
THE MERVAL FELL 0.5% IN PESOS AND 0.2% IN CCL-DOLLAR TERMS, closing at USD 1,937. Communications, up 2.5%, and Energy, up 1.3%, led the sector panel, while Non-Essential Consumer fell 2.1%, Construction 1.7% and Financials 1.6%. Among local stocks, Telecom Argentina stood out with 4.1%, Holcim with 2.0% and Sociedad Comercial del Plata with 1.8%, while Banco de Valores and Banco Galicia each lost 2.1% and Loma Negra 2.0%. Argentine ADRs trading in New York averaged a 0.1% gain, with Globant up 7.3%, Telecom up 4.2% and Bioceres up 2.2%, against declines in Ternium of 3.4%, Galicia of 2.1% and IRSA of 1.8%.
