US-DOLLAR SOVEREIGNS BOUNCED BACK after the previous session's sharp decline. The long end led the recovery and country risk fell again, while EM debt closed nearly flat. The peso curve ended mixed: dual bonds stood out while CER-linked bonds lagged, with repo rates higher on month-end effects. The official exchange rate eased and the BCRA kept buying, though reserves fell. The Merval fell again, dragged down by energy and real estate.
DOLLAR BONDS ROSE 0.4% ON AVERAGE and decoupled from EM debt, which slipped 0.1%. Bonares gained 0.6% and Globales 0.2%. In both legislations, gains were concentrated in the long end, with increases of up to 1.5% under New York law and 1.1% under local law, while short-dated local-law bonds closed slightly lower. Country risk fell 21 bps to close at 607 bps. Meanwhile, Bopreal bonds measured in MEP dollars gained 0.3%.
THE PESO CURVE ENDED MIXED IN USD TERMS, led by CER-linked floaters to TAMAR, which rose 1.1%. Fixed-rate bonds gained 0.2%, with the long end somewhat firmer than the short end, and dollar-linked bonds edged up 0.1%. CER-linked bonds were flat (0.0%), weighed down by declines in longer tenors. Overnight rates rose ahead of month-end: the one-day caucion closed at 22.1% NAR (+1.3 pp) and the repo rate at 21.3% NAR (+0.6 pp).
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE FELL 0.3% to close at $1,524.0, bringing its September gain to 1.0%. The MEP dollar dropped 0.4% to $1,549.2 and the CCL dropped 0.1% to $1,611.6, with a 4.0% MEP-CCL swap spread (canje). Meanwhile, the BCRA bought USD 70 M during the session, its largest purchase of the month and well above the USD 13 M daily average it had been buying in September. It has thus accumulated USD 313 M for the month and USD 14,420 M year-to-date.
THE MERVAL FELL 0.6% IN PESOS AND 0.1% IN CCL TERMS, closing at USD 1,724. The session was mixed: industrials, financials and consumer discretionary led gains, while energy, real estate and construction lagged. On the local panel, Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (+2.7%), Transener (+2.6%) and Edenor (+2.3%) stood out, while the biggest decliners were Holcim (-6.4%), Transportadora de Gas del Norte (-3.9%) and IRSA (-2.9%). On Wall Street, ADRs lost 0.6% on average: Edenor (+2.5%), Mercado Libre (+0.8%) and Telecom (+0.6%) led gains, while Bioceres (-3.5%), Cresud (-2.4%) and YPF (-2.1%) led losses.
THE CURRENT ACCOUNT POSTED A USD 2,214 M SURPLUS in the second quarter, compared with a USD 2,452 M deficit in the same period of 2025. The improvement was driven by the goods balance, which reached USD 9,293 M thanks to USD 6,500 M higher exports with stable imports. That surplus was reduced by the services deficit (USD 2,102 M) and especially by the primary income deficit (USD 6,032 M), which grew as profits and dividends from direct investment increased. Those dollars, together with proceeds from local government and corporate debt issuance (USD 7,000 M), had two main destinations: a USD 3,703 M increase in reserves and roughly USD 4,000 M in private purchases of foreign assets, split between portfolio investment, deposits and real estate. Conversely, companies paid down USD 2,064 M in debt to their parent companies and the BCRA repaid USD 1,810 M in long-term liabilities.
