ON WEDNESDAY, LOCAL ASSETS CLOSED MIXED, with dollar-denominated sovereigns advancing while equities retreated. The BCRA bought USD 70M in a session where the official rate moved higher and financial exchange rates closed with no clear direction. In pesos, dollar-linked instruments led the gains; CER bonds closed slightly in the red, while LECAPs and Duals were flat. On the data front, INDEC released the Q1 2026 balance of payments, showing a significant improvement in the current account deficit. Meanwhile, the Treasury Secretariat announced the terms of Friday's auction, where the Treasury will seek to roll over more than ARS 16.2 trillion in maturities.
THE TREASURY SECRETARIAT ANNOUNCED THE TERMS OF THE UPCOMING AUCTION, in which the Treasury faces ARS 16.2 trillion in maturities and will seek to roll them over with a broad menu of instruments. On the fixed-rate front, it includes the S13N6 (LECAP, Nov-26, new). On CER, it adds the TZXO7 (LECER, Oct-27, new) and TZXD8 (BONCER, Dec-28, new) alongside the already-open long-end TZXM8 (Mar-28). On TAMAR, the TML27 (Jul-27) makes its debut, while the CER/TAMAR dual TXMD9 (Dec-29) returns to the window. On FX hedging, the D31G6 (dollar-linked, Aug-26) and TZVD8 (dollar-linked, Dec-28) are on offer. As usual, the Bonar 2028 is included and would complete its issuance up to the USD 2 billion cap if fully subscribed. In this context of exchange rate pressure, we expect demand to concentrate in the short end of the fixed-rate curve — S13N6 — and in dollar-linked instruments. While it is a challenging auction given the volume of maturities, we expect the Treasury to roll over above par, offering some rate premium to capture market appetite.
ARS-DENOMINATED DEBT HAD A MIXED SESSION, with dollar-linked instruments once again leading gains, rising 0.4%. Duals followed with a 0.1% advance, in a context where TAMAR has been gradually rising and stands at 22.5% NAR. Meanwhile, the fixed-rate curve was virtually unchanged, while CER bonds fell 0.1% on average, with steeper losses in the mid-to-long end of the curve.
DOLLAR-DENOMINATED DEBT RESUMED ITS RALLY in a more favorable global session, rising 0.3%, in line with emerging market debt performance. Globals led with a 0.3% gain, with the GD46 standing out (+0.7%), while Bonars advanced 0.2%. With this performance, the country risk spread stood at 438 bps. Bopreals also rose 0.2%.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE AGAIN BY 0.6%, settling at ARS 1,478, accumulating a 4.8% gain so far this month. Financial exchange rates moved in the opposite direction: the MEP fell 0.6% while the other financial rate was flat, closing at ARS 1,502 and ARS 1,550, respectively, while the spread widened to 3.2%. In this context, the BCRA bought USD 70M in the FX market, accumulating purchases of USD 1,246M in June and USD 11,002M year-to-date. Gross reserves fell USD 532M, closing at USD 46,937M.
THE MERVAL FELL 4.3% BOTH IN PESOS AND IN DOLLAR TERMS, closing at USD 2,005, in a session with broad-based declines across all sectors. Energy, construction, and financials led the losses. Among local stocks, not a single name closed in positive territory, with Supervielle (-7.1%), BBVA (-6.9%), and Central Puerto (-5.9%) heading the declines. Among stocks listed in New York, Supervielle (-7.4%), BBVA (-6.8%), and Edenor (-6.1%) led the losses; MercadoLibre (+5.4%) and Globant (+0.9%) were the sole bright spots of the session.
ACCORDING TO INDEC, THE Q1 2026 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT compared to the same period of the prior year. The current account posted a deficit of USD 1,651M, a sharp correction from the USD 5,191M shortfall in Q1 2025. The financial account recorded a net capital inflow of USD 2,398M, driven by foreign direct investment (USD 1,291M) and the BCRA's REPO with international banks for USD 3,000M. International reserves rose USD 958M during the quarter to USD 42,052M at end-March, while gross external debt reached USD 321,783M.
