LOCAL MARKET TRADED WITHOUT CLEAR DIRECTION, as hard-dollar sovereigns eased in line with emerging market debt and country risk held near 490 bps, while the peso curve closed with no relevant changes across any segment. The official exchange rate and the MEP rose somewhat more than the CCL, compressing the swap spread, and equities were the story of the day, with the Merval advancing close to 1% led by energy. After the close, the Secretariat of Finance released the terms of Friday's auction, with a menu once again concentrated in the short end.
THE TREASURY FACES MONDAY MATURITIES OF $8.1 TRILLION, $4.3 trillion in Lecaps and $3.8 trillion in duals, an amount that does not look demanding. System liquidity normalized considerably, with the peso stock absorbed by the BCRA via repo estimated to have topped $3 trillion on Tuesday, meaning conditions are in place to roll over the full maturity. Friday September 11's auction menu combines fixed rate, TAMAR, CER and dollar-linked instruments, with a new dollar-linked note maturing in November 2026: LECAP: S13N6 (11/13/26); TAMAR: TMF27 (2/26/27) and TML27 (7/30/27); CER: X29E7 (1/29/27); Dollar-linked: D30O6 (10/30/26), D30N6 (11/30/26, new), D31M7 (3/31/27) and TZV27 (6/30/27).
THE MENU'S COMPOSITION IS THE CLEAREST SIGNAL FROM THE AUCTION, as the only fixed-rate option matures in November of this year and no instrument extends beyond July 2027, meaning the Treasury is once again offering short tenors and avoiding locking in the rates the market currently demands on the long end. The bet is to roll over the maturity by leaning on available liquidity without fixing long-term rates on the curve.
DOLLAR BONDS CLOSED DOWN 0.3% ON AVERAGE, with Globals easing 0.3% and Bonares 0.2%, in a session where losses were concentrated in the long end of the New York-law curve while the short end held close to the prior close. The move tracked emerging market debt, which fell 0.2%, with no local factor explaining the decline. Country risk closed at 491 bps. The Bopreal followed the same tone, giving up 0.3% in dollars.
PESO CURVES ENDED LOWER IN USD TERMS, with moves staying within roughly two tenths of a point across every segment. Dollar-linked and CER paper eased about 0.1%, CER-to-TAMAR duals fell around 0.2% and fixed rate gave up about 0.3%, with the loss concentrated in the long end while the short end held flat. The fixed-rate curve's steepening remained intact, with the short end yielding around 1.9% EMR and the long end above 2.2% EMR, a spread that explains the Treasury's reluctance to extend tenors. Repo trades steady around 20% NAR, with no short-term liquidity strain.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE 0.3% TO $1,515.11, and is up 0.4% so far this month. The MEP dollar advanced 0.5% to $1,530.82 and the CCL rose 0.2% to $1,589.48, compressing the spread to 3.8%. Separately, the BCRA bought USD 11 M in the FX market, while gross reserves fell USD 115 M to USD 50,617 M.
THE MERVAL ROSE 0.9% IN CCL DOLLAR TERMS, closing at 1,954.7 points. Energy led the gains, followed by real estate and consumer discretionary, while communications, consumer staples and utilities lagged. On the local panel the top gainers were Aluar at 3.6%, YPF at 3.1% and Mirgor at 1.9%, while Telecom Argentina fell 1.5%, Cresud 1.4% and Ternium 1.1%. ADRs averaged a 0.5% gain, with YPF up 3.6%, IRSA 2.3% and Bioceres 2.3%, while MercadoLibre fell 2.2%, Globant 1.9% and Vista 1.3%.
