OCTOBER'S OPENING SESSION LEFT A DEFENSIVE TONE ACROSS ARGENTINE ASSETS, Dollar sovereigns suffered a sell-off concentrated in the long end, on a weak day for emerging-market debt as well, and country risk rose again. Equities tracked the decline, with the sharpest losses in banks, telecoms and real estate. Peso curves, by contrast, posted nominal gains led by CER-linked paper, though these turned negative once translated to USD given the financial dollar's rise, while the exchange rate advanced across all segments and the central bank kept up its purchases.
DOLLAR BONDS CLOSED DOWN 1.1% ON AVERAGE, clearly underperforming emerging-market debt, which eased 0.15%. Globales fell 1.2% and Bonares 0.9%, with a marked difference by segment. Short-dated New York-law bonds rose as much as 0.4%, while longer-dated issues under both legislations lost between 1.5% and 2.4%, accounting for the entire decline. Against this backdrop, country risk rose 29 bps to close at 636 bps, up from 607 bps in the prior session. Bopreal notes fell 0.2%, with mild gains in the 2027 bonds and declines in the 2028s.
PESO CURVES ENDED LOWER IN USD TERMS, despite a firm tone in pesos. CER-linked bonds were the nominal leaders in pesos, up 0.2% on longer-dated paper, with CER-to-TAMAR duals advancing by the same margin — both came in around 0.7% lower once translated to USD given the financial dollar's advance. Dollar-linked notes and fixed-rate paper, up 0.1% in pesos (the latter only in the short end, as longer bonds closed unchanged), both landed close to 0.8% lower in USD terms. In the short-term market, one-day caución held at 23.7% NAR and repo fell 0.7 pp to 22.2%.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE 0.4% TO CLOSE AT $1,523.2, putting the month-to-date devaluation at 0.4% right out of the gate. The MEP dollar rose 0.6% to $1,552.3 and the CCL dollar climbed 0.9% to $1,623.1, putting the spread at 4.6%. Separately, the central bank bought USD 93 M on the day, bringing year-to-date purchases to USD 14,673 M. Gross reserves, meanwhile, recovered USD 2,199 M to close at USD 48,289 M, as reserve requirements that had been withdrawn at month-end flowed back in.
THE MERVAL FELL 2.7% IN CCL-DOLLAR TERMS (2.3% IN PESOS), closing at USD 1,696, in a broadly negative session with few advancers. Industrials was the only sector higher, followed by consumer discretionary and consumer staples with mild declines, while real estate, communications and financials were hit hardest. On the local panel, nominal pesos gains from Holcim (+0.8%), Banco de Valores (+0.2%) and Transportadora Gas del Norte (+0.2%) turned negative once adjusted to USD, leaving virtually the entire panel in the red; the steepest declines were in Telecom (-6.0%), IRSA (-5.4%) and BYMA (-5.2%) on an adjusted basis. On Wall Street, ADRs lost 2.0% on average. Globant rose 7.4%, followed by Ternium (+2.3%) and Bioceres (+1.2%), while IRSA (-5.5%), Telecom (-5.0%) and Corporación América (-4.6%) led the declines.
