THE LOCAL MARKET CLOSED SEPTEMBER ON A FIRM NOTE, BUCKING THE TREND IN EM DEBT, as the session’s main highlight was the BCRA stepping up its dollar purchases for its best day of the month. Dollar bonds advanced despite the drop in EM debt and rising international rates. The peso curve held its bullish bias, FX rates pulled back, and the Merval rebounded sharply.
DOLLAR BONDS CLOSED THE MONTH HIGHER, DECOUPLING FROM EM DEBT, which fell as international rates rose again. Hard-dollar sovereign debt gained 0.6% on average. Bonares rose 0.6% and Globales 0.4%. In local law, the medium and long segments led with gains of up to 1.2%, while New York law bonds were more mixed. Country risk was unchanged at 607 bps, and Bopreal bonds closed stable.
PESO CURVES EXTENDED THEIR GAINS IN USD TERMS INTO MONTH-END, as CCL-adjusted returns held a bullish bias. CER-linked bonds led with a 0.7% gain, driven by the long end (0.8%) versus shorter maturities (0.6%). Next came TAMAR dual CER bonds and TAMAR bonds, both up 0.5%. Fixed-rate bonds gained 0.4%, with longer tenors outperforming, while dollar-linked bonds closed unchanged. Month-end pressured overnight rates: the 1-day repo rose 1.7 pp to 23.0% NAR, and the 1-day caución traded around 22% NAR.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE PULLED BACK 0.4% TO CLOSE AT $1,517.5, bringing its September gain to 0.5%. In the financial segment, the MEP dollar fell 0.4% to $1,542.4 and the CCL dollar dropped 0.2% to $1,608.4, with the spread at 4.3%. Meanwhile, the BCRA bought USD 160 M during the session, more than double the prior day and its best print of the month, taking September purchases to USD 473 M and USD 14,580 M year-to-date. The daily average for the month came in at USD 21.5 M, below August’s USD 38.5 M. Separately, gross reserves fell USD 1,392 M on seasonal month-end reserve requirement effects, closing at USD 46,090 M.
THE MERVAL ROSE 2.1% IN CCL DOLLAR TERMS TO USD 1,760, up 1.2% in pesos, in a broad-based rebound. Utilities led gains, followed by materials and consumer discretionary, while consumer staples, energy, and real estate lagged. On the local panel, the top gainers were Transener (+3.8%), Mirgor (+2.1%), and Central Puerto (+2.1%), while the main decliners were IRSA (-2.2%), Cresud (-2.1%), and YPF (-0.4%). On Wall Street, ADRs rose 0.8% on average, led by Grupo Supervielle (+2.8%), BBVA (+2.4%), and Globant (+1.9%), while Vista (-1.7%) and YPF (-0.5%) closed lower and Telecom was unchanged.
