THE SESSION HAD A MIXED TONE, with hard-dollar debt easing in line with a weak day for emerging markets, which fell 0.5%, and a peso curve that steepened sharply: the short end rose clearly while the long end lagged. On the macro front, INDEC released June's EMAE, June's wage index and July's trade balance, and UTDT released August's consumer confidence.
USD SOVEREIGNS CLOSED LOWER, with an average decline of 0.9%. Bonares fell 1.0% and Globales 0.8%, with the pain concentrated in the long end: AL35 and GD35 both lost 1.5% each and GD41 1.3%, while the short end cushioned the session with declines of 0.3% in GD30 and AO27. Country risk held at 516 bps. Bopreal, measured in MEP dollars, closed practically unchanged.
PESO CURVES STEEPENED SHARPLY, with fixed-rate demand concentrated in the short end, up between 0.5% and 1.1% in USD terms through S30N6 and yielding around 2.0%-2.2% EMR, while 2027 maturities slipped about 0.6% in USD terms. The same pattern played out in CER, where instruments through December gained between 0.6% and 1.1% in USD terms but the long end closed lower, with DICP down 3.7% and PARP down 8.9%, leaving the segment down 1.3% on average in USD terms. CER-TAMAR duals fell 2.2% in USD terms, dollar-linked notes closed unchanged, and fixed-rate TAMAR notes rose 0.4% in USD terms.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE CLOSED AT $1,497.29, practically unchanged on the day, while financial rates moved higher: the MEP dollar rose 0.3% to $1,528.0 and the CCL rose 0.6% to $1,585.8, with the exchange spread at 3.8%. The BCRA bought USD 89 M in the FX market and international reserves rose USD 340 M to USD 50,342 M.
THE MERVAL WAS FLAT IN PESOS AND FELL 0.8% IN DOLLARS, to 1,816 points. Within the local panel, the leaders were Transportadora Gas del Sur (+2.2% in USD terms), Banco de Valores (+1.1% in USD terms) and YPF (+0.9% in USD terms), while the biggest decliners were Banco Macro (-3.5% in USD terms), BBVA Argentina (-2.9% in USD terms) and Sociedad Comercial del Plata (-2.6% in USD terms). ADRs rose 0.4% on average, led by Bioceres (+7.3%), Adecoagro (+4.5%) and Vista (+3.1%), while Banco Macro fell 4.0%, BBVA 2.8% and IRSA 1.8%.
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (EMAE) GREW 0.8% S.A. IN JUNE, snapping two straight months of declines (-1.6% in April and -0.6% in May) and accelerating to 2.7% y/y from 0.4% in May. Even so, the seasonally adjusted level remains below March's peak, so the rebound recovers part of the lost ground but does not yet mark an exit from the plateau.
THE WAGE INDEX ROSE 2.9% M/M IN JUNE AND 35.7% Y/Y, accelerating from 2.2% in May. With monthly inflation at 1.9%, real wages advanced about 1.0% m/m. The dynamic remains driven by the public sector, up 3.4% on the university wage agreement, and by unregistered private-sector workers, up 4.4%, while registered private-sector wages rose 1.9%, barely keeping pace with prices and still lagging inflation on a year-over-year basis.
JULY'S TRADE BALANCE POSTED A SURPLUS OF USD 2,115 M, the thirty-second consecutive surplus, with exports of USD 8,854 M growing 14.1% y/y and imports of USD 6,739 M falling 1.7% y/y. The surplus came in below June's USD 2,235 M and export growth decelerated from the prior 25.2% y/y, though the year-to-date total still shows a USD 16,080 M surplus over seven months versus USD 3,669 M a year earlier.
UTDT'S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FELL 1.1% IN AUGUST TO 40.2 POINTS, marking the second straight monthly decline after July's 4.8% drop, though it remains above year-ago levels. The deterioration was driven by the personal situation component, down 3.2%, and durable goods purchase intentions, down 4.0%, while future expectations improved slightly.
