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LOCAL ASSETS HAD A MIXED SESSION ON TUESDAY. Sovereign dollar bonds edged higher and country risk compressed to 520 bps. On the peso curves, CER bonds led gains — boosted by a higher-than-expected March inflation print — followed by Lecaps and dollar-linked instruments, while Dual bonds were flat. Financial exchange rates were mixed: the CCL held steady while the MEP rose slightly. The BCRA resumed purchases in the official FX market, adding to gross reserves. The Treasury also held an auction today aimed at extending maturity profiles.
INDEC RELEASED THE MARCH CPI PRINT AT 3.4% MONTH-OVER-MONTH, above the February reading of 2.9% and above market consensus of 2.7%–3.3%. This is the highest reading of the year and the largest since March 2025. Inflation accumulated 9.3% in Q1 2026 and 32.6% year-over-year. By category, Regulated prices led with a 5.1% MoM increase, driven by utility tariffs, fuel, transport and education. Core inflation rose 3.2% MoM, slightly below the headline, while Seasonal prices increased 1.0% MoM. By division, Education posted the largest gain at 12.1% MoM, in line with the start of the school year, followed by Transportation at 4.1% MoM, affected by fuel, public transit and airfares.
THE TREASURY WILL HOLD AN AUCTION TOMORROW facing maturities of ARS 8.3 trillion. The Secretary of Finance is offering a new Lecap maturing in August 2026 (S14G6), CER instruments (TZXS8 and TZXM9), TAMAR-adjusted peso bills (TMF27 and TMG27), a reopening of the dollar-linked TZV28 (maturing June 2028), and the hard-dollar Bonares AO27 and AO28. Optional switches will also be available for holders of TZXD6 and TZXM7 (conversion to TZXM8) and the dual bond TTS26 (conversion to TMF28). Against a backdrop of ample peso liquidity and with the March inflation print already known, the Treasury is expected to roll over above maturities — as it has in recent auctions — though it remains to be seen whether rates continue declining.
ARS-DENOMINATED DEBT HAD A POSITIVE SESSION, with CER instruments again leading performance, rising 0.5% after the March inflation print came in above expectations. Dollar-linked bonds also advanced 0.5%, followed by the fixed-rate curve (+0.2%), driven by the long end. Dual bonds lagged as the TAMAR rate has been declining for several days, reducing the appeal of these instruments.
DOLLAR-DENOMINATED BONDS HAD A STABLE SESSION after two consecutive days of gains, rising 0.1%. Bonares edged up 0.1% while Globals closed flat. Country risk marginally retreated to 520 bps. Bopreal underperformed, falling 0.6%.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE FELL 0.3%, closing at ARS 1,358.52, sitting 23.5% below the upper band ceiling. Financial rates were mixed: the MEP rose 0.3% to ARS 1,406.9 while the CCL closed flat at ARS 1,468.1; the spread narrowed slightly to 4.3%. The BCRA continued buying in the official FX market, purchasing USD 185M, accumulating net purchases of USD 1,336M for the month and USD 5,722M year-to-date. Gross reserves rose USD 463M to USD 45,873M.
THE MERVAL FELL 1.4% IN PESOS AND 1.9% IN DOLLARS, closing at USD 2,010. Declines were led by the energy and utilities sectors, while financials and real estate traded higher. Among local stocks, Banco de Valores (+3.1%), IRSA (+2.5%) and Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (+1.3%) led gains, while Transportadora Gas del Sur (-5.0%), Central Puerto (-4.7%) and Edenor (-4.5%) posted the steepest losses. In New York, the average fell 1.5%, with Bioceres (+1.5%), IRSA (+1.3%) and Telecom Argentina (+1.2%) as the top gainers, and AdecoAgro (-4.9%), Edenor (-4.6%) and TGS (-4.5%) leading declines.
