ARS-DENOMINATED DEBT HAD A STABLE SESSION, with curves showing virtually no changes. CER bonds posted a slight decline at the long end of the curve, falling up to 1.6%. At current prices, the fixed-rate curve shows yields between 1.62% EMR and 2.04% EMR across the curve, while the CER curve prices in negative real rates through March 2027, ranging from CER -11.8% to CER -1.8%. Dual bonds fell 0.9%, while dollar-linked bonds were flat, tracking the rise in exchange rates.
DOLLAR-DENOMINATED SOVEREIGN BONDS POSTED A SOLID PERFORMANCE, rising 0.3% and outperforming emerging market debt. Globals were mostly higher, with the GD30 up 0.7% and the GD38 gaining 0.3%, while the GD29 fell 0.3%. The New York-law index rose 0.31% and the Argentine-law index advanced 0.19%. Despite the positive performance, country risk stood at 526 bps, 8 points above Friday's close. Bopreal bonds edged up 0.1%, with the short end leading gains of up to 0.9%.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE 0.9%, closing at $1,372.77, sitting 22.9% below the ceiling of the band, which is expected to reach $1,710 at the start of May based on March inflation (3.4% m/m). Financial exchange rates also moved higher: the MEP gained 0.5% and the financial rate rose 1.0%, closing at $1,420.19 and $1,469.18, respectively. The gap between the financial rate and the official rate stood at around 7.0%, while the spread between both financial rates was 3.4%. The BCRA purchased USD 131 million in the official market, bringing its April total to approximately USD 1,765 million and its year-to-date 2026 total to roughly USD 6,147 million. Gross reserves fell USD 44 million, closing at USD 45,747 million.
THE MERVAL ADVANCED 1.3% IN PESOS AND 0.8% IN USD TERMS, settling at USD 2,000. Communications, construction, and energy led the gains, while industrials and consumer staples underperformed. Among locally listed stocks, Telecom (+4%), Edenor (+3.7%), and Loma Negra (+2.2%) topped the gainers, while VALO (-3%), IRSA (-2.2%), and COME (-0.8%) led the declines. ADRs advanced an average of 1.9%, with Bioceres (+11.6%), Edenor (+3.9%), and Telecom (+3.2%) as the top performers, while IRSA (-0.9%) and Corporación América (-0.4%) posted the largest drops.
INDEC RELEASED MARCH TRADE BALANCE DATA, showing a goods surplus of USD 2,523 million, compared to USD 623 million in the same month of 2025. Exports totaled USD 8,645 million (+30% y/y), driven primarily by primary products (+56% y/y), followed by industrial manufactures (+26%), energy exports (+23%), and agricultural manufactures (+18%). Seasonally adjusted, exports grew 20% relative to February. Imports totaled USD 6,122 million (+1.7% y/y), with vehicles (+17% y/y), intermediate goods (+10% y/y), consumer goods (+6.6% y/y), and capital goods (+4.5% y/y) driving the increase, while energy (-38% y/y) and parts & accessories (-18% y/y) acted as offsets. Seasonally adjusted, imports grew 0.4% relative to February. For the first quarter as a whole, the trade surplus reached USD 5,508 million, compared to USD 1,061 million in the same period of 2025.


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