TODAY, THE TREASURY WILL HOLD THE LAST AUCTION OF FEBRUARY, IN WHICH IT WILL FACE MATURITIES AMOUNTING TO $7,2 TRILLION. On this occasion, the Treasury is not offering fixed-rate instruments, but it announced the implementation of a USD-denominated bond program that will be incorporated into upcoming biweekly auctions. The instrument will pay a 6% annual coupon, payable monthly, with maturity in October 2027, and will be allocated at price. The maximum amount to be placed will be USD 150 M per auction, while the total size of the program will reach up to USD 2.000 M. Taking the BCRA curve as a reference, particularly Bopreal Serie 1-C, it could be inferred that the bond would be issued at par with a yield close to 6,2% YTM. On the other hand, the Treasury is offering CER-adjusted instruments with maturities between July 2026 and June 2028 (X31L6, X30N6, TZX27 and TZX28), including a new issuance maturing in May this year, as well as two new dollar-linked instruments maturing in June 2027 and 2028. On this occasion, the Treasury opted not to offer fixed-rate instruments.
AHEAD OF THE AUCTION, PESO-DENOMINATED DEBT POSTED A POSITIVE PERFORMANCE, likely reflecting a market view that the Treasury would not need to maintain a high rollover rate under the new financing program. In this context, the fixed-rate curve stood out, rising 0.5%, with gains of up to 1.6% in the long end. Dollar-linked bonds followed, advancing 0.4% in line with the increase in exchange rates, while dual bonds gained 0.2% and CER bonds lagged behind with a 0.0% variation. Meanwhile, overnight rates were less strained and returned to levels of 30%–31% TNA, while the TAMAR rate climbed to 36.5% TNA.
DOLLAR-DENOMIANTED DEBT POSTED ANOTHER NEGATIVE SESSION, DECLINING BY 0,8%. Losses reached up to 1,3% in the long end under foreign law. Following this performance, country risk increased again, reaching 545 bps. Meanwhile, Bopreal bonds declined by 0,9%.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE MOVED HIGHER, AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS OF DECLINES, RISING BY 0,7%. As a result, it closed at $1.377,1 and now stands 16,3% below the upper band. Financial dollar rates also increased, with the MEP up 0,5% and the CCL up 0,3%, closing at $1.399,6 and $1.443,4, respectively. Meanwhile, the BCRA continued purchasing foreign currency in the official market, albeit at a slower pace, acquiring USD 48 M during the session. This brought February’s net purchases to USD 1.398 M, while the year-to-date total amounts to USD 2.556 M. In this context, gross international reserves rose by USD 28 M, closing at USD 46.662 M.
THE MERVAL POSTED A REBOUND OF 1.8% IN PESOS AND 1.5% IN CCL DOLLAR TERMS, CLOSING AT USD 1,948. At the sector level, gains were driven by banks and utilities, with stocks such as BBVA, Edenor, and Banco Macro rising between 2.9% and 5.0%. Meanwhile, the materials sector offset part of the advance, as Holcim and Aluar fell 6.9% and 4.9%, respectively. Argentine shares listed in New York rose 1.7% on average, led by BBVA, Edenor, and Bioceres, which posted gains ranging from 3.4% to 4.5%.
