IN YESTERDAY'S SESSION, ARGENTINA REACHED A STAFF-LEVEL AGREEMENT WITH THE IMF that would unlock a disbursement of USD 1.0 billion. Against this backdrop, local assets had a mixed session.
AT YESTERDAY'S TREASURY AUCTION, THE GOVERNMENT PLACED ARS 9.92 TRILLION, achieving a 127% rollover above maturities. The Lecap S14G6 accounted for the largest share at 44.86% of the total, followed by TAMAR instruments at 28.02%. CER-linked bonds represented 21.88% and dollar-linked instruments the remaining 5.24%. The placement was done at rates above the market curve, particularly for CER and TAMAR bonds, with average maturity of 406 days (approximately 1.11 years), as most maturities are concentrated between 2027 and 2029.
THE IMF REACHED A STAFF-LEVEL AGREEMENT ON THE SECOND REVIEW OF THE 2025 PROGRAM, pending Board approval, after which a USD 1.0 billion disbursement would be released. On the fiscal front, the primary surplus came in at 1.4% of GDP, below the projected 2.2%, with tax and pension reforms flagged as pending. Monetary policy remains restrictive with quarterly targets in place. On reserves, a USD 8.0 billion recovery is projected for 2026, though BCRA purchases of USD 5.5 billion year-to-date translated into only USD 600 million in net improvement. Upcoming maturities will be covered through local dollar issuances, Treasury asset sales, BCRA REPOs, and external credit lines with potential multilateral guarantees.
ARS-DENOMINATED DEBT POSTED A POSITIVE PERFORMANCE, in a session dominated by the Treasury auction. The fixed-rate curve led gains, rising 0.5% overall — driven by the long end, which was up 1.1% on average — followed by CER bonds, which advanced 0.4%. Dual-linked bonds lagged again with a modest 0.3% gain, while dollar-linked instruments declined 1.4%.
DOLLAR-DENOMINATED BONDS FELL AN AVERAGE OF 0.1%, though they outperformed emerging market debt broadly. Globals dropped 0.2% — with larger declines at the long end — while Bonars edged up 0.1%. Country risk nudged higher to 527 bps. Bopreals stood out with a 1.0% gain.
AFTER FIVE CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS OF DECLINES, THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE ROSE 0.4%, closing at ARS 1,363.66 — 23.1% below the top of the band. Financial exchange rates deepened their slide: the MEP fell 1.1% to ARS 1,391.8 and the CCL dropped 0.7% to ARS 1,458.4, while the spread between them widened back to 4.8%. The BCRA continued buying in the official market, acquiring USD 128 million, bringing monthly net purchases to USD 1.464 billion and year-to-date to USD 5.850 billion. Gross reserves fell USD 246 million, closing at USD 45.627 billion.
THE MERVAL LOST 1.1% IN PESOS AND 0.4% IN DOLLAR TERMS, settling at USD 2,001. Energy and utilities weighed on the index, while financials and consumer discretionary posted gains. Among local listings, IRSA (-6.9%), Transener (-3.2%), and TGS (-2.4%) led declines, while ByMA (5.1%), Holcim (2.7%), and Ternium (2.2%) were the top performers. Among ADRs, the average slipped 0.1%, with AdecoAgro (-2.2%), TGS (-2.0%), and Loma Negra (-1.6%) as the biggest laggards, and Globant (5.1%), Edenor (2.2%), and MercadoLibre (2.1%) as the top gainers.
