.svg){kind=small}
.svg){kind=small}
.jpeg)
MONDAY'S SESSION WAS NEUTRAL FOR DOLLAR-DENOMINATED SOVEREIGNS AND POSITIVE FOR EQUITIES, driven by the energy sector. ARS-denominated curves rose across all segments, with gains in Lecaps, CER bonds, Bontes, dollar-linked, and Dual bonds. In the FX market, financial exchange rates edged lower while the official rate held steady. The BCRA resumed purchases in the official market and gross reserves increased. The Government released April's fiscal results.
ARS-DENOMINATED DEBT WAS STABLE THROUGHOUT THE SESSION, with dollar-linked bonds posting the strongest gains, rising 0.5%, despite the decline in exchange rates. Dual bonds followed, up 0.4%, while CER bonds were little changed overall, though the short end saw stronger demand and edged up 0.4%. The fixed-rate curve held steady, with rates remaining in the 1.8%–2.0% EMR range.
DOLLAR-DENOMINATED SOVEREIGN BONDS SAW MILD DECLINES, concentrated in the long end of the foreign-law curve, which fell 0.3%, while local-law sovereigns rose 0.2%. Against this backdrop, country risk climbed to 543 bps. BCRA bonds edged slightly lower.
THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE WAS STABLE TO START THE WEEK, closing at ARS 1,394.97, 24.5% below the top of the band. In contrast, financial FX rates edged lower: the MEP fell 0.5% and the financial rate dropped 0.3%, closing at ARS 1,419.7 and ARS 1,485.8, respectively, while the spread between the two rose to 4.7%. The BCRA purchased USD 153M in the official FX market, bringing cumulative purchases to USD 1,079M in May and over USD 8,234M year-to-date. Gross reserves rose USD 112M to USD 46,134M.
THE MERVAL GAINED 4.0% IN PESOS AND 4.3% IN DOLLAR TERMS, closing at USD 1,895. The rally was led by energy, banks, and utilities, while communications underperformed. On the local board, YPF (+8.6%), Transportadora Gas del Norte (+7.2%), and Edenor (+6.6%) led the gainers, while Telecom Argentina (-5.1%), Aluar (-2.9%), and Holcim (-2.3%) posted the largest declines. Among NYSE-listed stocks, the average rose 3.9%, with YPF (+8.7%), Vista Energy (+8.6%), and Edenor (+6.6%) as the top performers.
THE NATIONAL PUBLIC SECTOR CLOSED APRIL WITH A FINANCIAL SURPLUS OF 0.02% OF GDP AND A PRIMARY SURPLUS OF 0.05% (four-month cumulative: 0.2% financial and 0.4% primary, 0.5% including extraordinary revenues from January). Revenue fell 2% in real y/y terms, dragged by lower export duties (-38%), employment contributions (-3%), and import duties (-15%), while primary spending rose 2% y/y, driven by economic subsidies (+88% y/y; energy +150%, transport +18%), public works (+69%), universal child allowance (+6%), and pensions with bonus (+1%), partially offset by declines in provincial transfers (-54%), social programs excluding AUH (-18%), and wages (-3%). In the 2026 cumulative, primary spending is down 3% in real y/y terms due to cuts in provincial transfers (-42%), social programs excluding AUH (-27%), wages (-7%), and public works (-4%), while economic subsidies rose (+35%) and interest payments accumulated -7% y/y in real terms over the quarter (+1% in April).
WAGES IN MARCH 2026 ROSE 3.4% M/M, MATCHING INFLATION OF 3.4% M/M, leaving them flat in real terms and breaking a six-consecutive-month streak of declines (since October 2025). In Q1, wages accumulated +8.6% against +9.5% CPI, for a real loss of 0.8%. On a year-over-year basis, wages rose 36.4% against 32.6% inflation, gaining 2.9% in real terms. By sector, in March registered private wages rose 2.1% m/m, public wages 5.0% m/m, and informal wages 4.7% m/m. In the quarterly cumulative, registered private wages rose 5.9%, public wages 9.4%, and informal wages 14.3%, all below cumulative inflation for the period, except for the informal sector, which gained 4.4% in real terms.
